One action per turn
Income gives 1 coin, Foreign Aid gives 2, Tax claims Duke for 3, and a Coup costs 7. A player starting a turn with at least 10 coins must Coup.
Base game · reproducible simulation
Every claim is a wager.
Which simple Coup tactics survive a table that bluffs, challenges, or plays cautiously? Explore observed win rates by player count and opponent mix.
Rankings describe these programmed policies in their named matchups. They are not a solved strategy for human play.
88,000screening games
168,000held-out games
2–6players studied
11named policies
The four-player table
What held up in confirmation
Shortlisted policies were rerun on a separate seed panel. Each card below names its opponent field, because the winner can change with the table.
An observed leader has the highest measured rate among confirmed finalists. The top-two pairs were selected in screening. Their paired intervals are adjusted across the four field comparisons.
Matchup explorer
Compare like with like
Use the confirmed four-player panel for the strongest ranking evidence. The wider screening covers 2–6 players and all eleven policies.
Scroll the table sideways to see rates, intervals, and draws.
| Rank | Policy | Wins / games | Win rate | 95% interval | Draws |
|---|
The rulebook model
Claims, challenges, and costs
Every game uses the standard five-role, fifteen-card court deck. Two influence cards are dealt to each player.
Claim a role or bluff
Assassin pays 3 to attack, Captain steals up to 2, and Ambassador exchanges with the court. A truthful claim survives a challenge and still resolves after the challenger loses influence.
Blocks can be challenged
Duke blocks Foreign Aid, Contessa blocks assassination, and Captain or Ambassador blocks stealing. A proven block holds; a disproved block fails.
The Assassin's fee
A successful Contessa block leaves the 3-coin fee spent. A successful challenge to the Assassin claim cancels the action and refunds the fee if the actor remains in play.
Rules checked against the base Coup rulebook PDF and publisher-maintained Dized rules.
What the bots actually do
Policy definitions
These are transparent heuristics. Every policy coups at 7 coins; the rulebook requires a coup only at 10. After two failed actions, a policy takes guaranteed Income once.
Baseline
Claims only held roles. Prioritizes Duke tax, then Captain steals, occasional Ambassador exchanges, and Foreign Aid. Challenges impossible claims.
Income
Takes guaranteed Income until a Coup is affordable.
Foreign Aid
Seeks 2 coins per turn, subject to Duke blocks.
Taxer
Claims Duke tax on every non-Coup turn, including as a bluff.
Captain
Claims a steal whenever another player has coins, whether or not it holds Captain.
Assassin
Claims assassination at 3 or more coins and uses Foreign Aid to fund it.
Exchange
Sometimes exchanges when holding Ambassador without Duke; otherwise follows the truthful baseline.
Bluff heavy
Claims Tax without checking its hand and claims blocks whenever possible.
Challenge low
Uses baseline actions; sometimes challenges Assassin, Captain, or Contessa claims.
Challenge heavy
Uses baseline actions and challenges every role claim.
Block aggressive
Uses baseline actions but claims any available block, even without the card.
Evidence and limits
How to read these numbers
The simulator rotates a distinct focal player through every seat. Each candidate in the same matchup uses the same initial seed panel; mixed opponents cycle across positions.
Win rate
Wins divided by all scheduled games, including games that reached the 1,000-action cap. Draws have their own column.
Uncertainty
Table intervals are 95% Wilson intervals for a policy's win rate. Finding cards use paired differences for the four preselected top-two pairs, with a simultaneous 95% correction.
Scope
Policies use only private cards and public information. The model omits negotiation, optional variants, and the choice to decline proof of a held role. Response priority is clockwise when several players could act.
Two players
The first seat starts with one coin under the base two-player rule. View those exploratory results separately from standard multiplayer games.